1

IMPACT OF SEA-LEVEL RISE ON

GRENADA’S SOUTHWEST PENINSULA

Everson J. Peters

and

Terrence P. Smith

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This Pilot Assessment of the Vulnerability of three (3) sites in Grenada to the effects of climate change induced sea level rise, was the result of two (2) years of work by a number of diverse people and agencies.

The technical components of the project were lead by a team of Grenadian professionals, who were each responsible for the analysis of specific sectoral impacts, viz:

§ Beach Erosion – Dr. Everson J. Peters.

§ Socio-economic Impacts – Dr. Linus Spencer-Thomas, Economist/Consultant.

§ Hydrology - Terrence P. Smith, Civil / Sanitary Engineer, Principal, T.P. Smith Engineering: Environmental Management/Assessment; Water and Wastewater Engineering: tsmith@caribsurf.com.

§ Infrastructure - Terrence P. Smith, Civil / Sanitary Engineer, Principal, T.P. Smith Engineering: Environmental Management/Assessment; Water and Wastewater Engineering: tsmith@caribsurf.com.

§ Legal Review – Robert Alexis, LLB (Hons.), University of the West Indies

§ GIS Analysis:

- Michael Mason: Land Use Officer, GIS Operator

- Fabian Purcell: Planning Technologist, GIS Operator

- Raymond Baptiste: Chief Land Use Officer

- Trevor Thompson: Land Use Officer, GIS Operator

The analysis of the coastal ecosystems was done by a CPACC technical team led by Leslie Walling.

The data collection for socio-economic field survey was done by a team of enumerators recruited and trained by the Central Statistical office of the Ministry of Finance. They had to work at very unusual hours to meet the people residing at the various sites and their contribution to the success of the final project results must be complimented.

These enumerators were:

§ Southwest Peninsula - Akimbo Paul, Kedron Charles, Calana Charles. Rachael Modeste, Latoya Augustine and Camille Bruno.

§ Northeast Site - Talisha Alexander, Shondel Williams, Benjamin Fletcher, Christine Benjamin, Shally-ann Alexis and Blondy Millette.

§ Carriacou Site - Brenton Bethel, A. Johnson, Aaron Alexander, Petra Clouden, Dawn Cudjoe and Nahomi Dick.

I will also like to express my gratitude to the many ministries and organisations that assisted by providing information, responded to the various surveys, shared technical documents with the team of consultants and made their staff available to provide support to the project. This includes, but is not restricted to, GRENLEC, NAWASA, C&W, the hotel sector, the Ministry of Works, the Ministry of Carriacou and Petite Martinique Affairs, the Physical Planning Unit, the Ministry of Finance, the National Science and Technology Council, particularly Mr. Peter Thomas and Ms. Gail Hypolite and the Land Use Department in the Ministry of Agriculture, especially Ms. Ann Francis.

At the administrative level, the personnel at the Grenada OAS office, especially the Director, Resident Representative, Mr. Francis McBarnette, was a constant source of support and guidance throughout the entire process.

The CPACC National Focal Point, Ms. Jocelyn Paul, was instrumental in facilitating the interface with the many different ministries and organisations. She was ably assisted by the Climate Change Administrative Assistant, Ms. Ivy Bain.

Notwithstanding the wide range of inputs into the process, the responsibility for this final output rests with the National Coordinator and any errors and omissions thereof is not to be attributed to any of the other participants in the process.

Leon Charles

Consultant, Charles & Associates (CAA) Inc.

National Coordinator

CPACC Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Project - Grenada

December 2001

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND CONVERSIONS

ACRONYMS

AMSL Above mean sea level

BBD Black Band Disease

C & W Cable & Wireless Grenada Ltd.

CARICOM The Caribbean Community

CH₄Methane

CO₂ Carbon Dioxide

CP Conference of Parties

CPACC Caribbean: Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change

CRIS Coastal Resource Information System

CSO Central Statistical Office, Ministry of Finance

DIWI DIWI Consult International GmbH

DWL Dynamic water level

EMR Eastern Main Road

GCC Global climate change

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GHG Greenhouse Gas

GIS Geographic information system

GLIS Grenada Land Information System

GOG Government of Grenada

GPA Grenada Ports Authority

GPS Global Positioning System

GRENLEC Grenada Electricity Services Ltd.

IMA Institute of Marine Affairs

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LUD Land Use Division, Ministry of Agriculture

MOA Ministry of Agriculture

MOF Ministry of Finance

MOW Ministry of Works

N₂O Nitrous Oxide

NAWASA National Water & Sewerage Authority

NERO National Emergency Relief Organisation

NIS National Insurance Scheme

O₃ Ozone

OAS Organisation of American States

OECS Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States

OPM Outside Plant Module

OPI Outside Plant Interface

PPU Physical Planning Unit

PSIA Point Salines International Airport

PVC Polyvinyl chloride

RC Reinforced concrete

RIKS Research Institute for Knowledge Systems

RO Reverse Osmosis

SLR Sea-level rise

SS Storm Surge

SWL Static water level

TDS Total dissolved solids

UNEP United Nations Environment Program

UNESCO United Nations Education Scientific and Cultural Organisation

UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

USA United States of America

V&A Vulnerability and Adaptation

VM Vertical Movement

WMR Western Main Road

YBD Yellow Band Disease

CONVERSIONS

Currency

US$ 1.00 = East Caribbean Dollar EC$ 2.68

US$ 0.37 = EC$ 1.00

Weights & Measures

1 ha = 0,000 m² = 2.471 acres 1 acre = 0.4047 ha

1 km = 0.6214 miles 1 mile = 1.609 km

1 m = 3.281 feet 1 foot = 0.3048 m

1 m² = 10.76 sq ft. 1 sq. ft.= 0.0929 m²

1 liter = 0.2200 imperial gallons 1 gallon = 4.5460 liters

1 kg = 2.2050 pounds 1 pound = 0.4540 kg

1 m³ = 220 imperial gallons

= 264 US gallons

1. INTRODUCTION

This Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Pilot Project was undertaken as a component of the regional Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Project (CPACC) project which consists of nine (9) components - four (4) regional components and five (5) pilot components.

The overall objective of CPACC is to support Caribbean countries in preparing to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change particularly sea level rise in coastal and marine areas, through vulnerability assessments, adaptation planning and capacity building linked to adaptation planning.

The twelve (12) CARICOM countries participating in CPACC include Antigua and Barbuda, the Commonwealth of Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, the Commonwealth of Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, St. Christopher and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines and the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. All of the participating countries have signed and ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

2. CLIMATE CHANGE

2.1. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines climate change as “ a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods”.[1]

It is important to note at the outset that changes in the earth’s climate have occurred throughout the historical evolution of the earth. For example, the onset of the ice age caused the gradual decline of the dinosaurs as they could not adjust to the climate changes around them. The concept of changing climate is thus not new, however in recent years there have been a growing concern of the effects that the changing climate will have on human life.

In the last decade there has been increasing scientific evidence suggesting that the continual pollution of the atmosphere with green house gases (GHGs), particularly via the combination of fossil fuels, has been lending to global warming.

The primary cause of global warming results from the increase in the production of greenhouse gases as a result of human activity. Greenhouse gases are those gases which are important in global climate change, namely methane (CH₄), Nitrous Oxide (N₂O), Ozone (O₃), Chloroflorucarbons and Carbon Dioxide (CO₂). Increases in Nitrous Oxides (N₂O) levels has resulted from the increase in the utilization of nitrogen fertilizers, while the sources of methane (CH₄) are from the rice paddy fields, solid waste disposal sites and ruminant cattle. Ozone comes from unburnt hydrocarbons reacting with oxides of nitrogen, while chloroflorocarbons are found in aerosol propellents and refrigeration units.

Carbon Dioxide is the most important greenhouse gas. The increase in CO₂ arises from the combustion of substances containing carbon, namely fossil fuels such as coal, oil, natural gas which are used to provide energy. CO₂ levels in the atmosphere are also arising as a result of the clearance of forests for agriculture, as the forests act as a potential sink for CO₂. Atmospheric CO₂ has increased from a pre-industrial concentration of about 280 ppmv to about 367 ppmv

CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere have been measured at an altitude of about 4,000 meters on the peak of Mauna Loa mountain in Hawaii since 1958 (see figure 1). The measurements at this location, remote from local sources of pollution, have clearly shown that atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ are increasing. The mean concentration of approximately 316 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in 1958 rose to approximately 369 ppmv in 1998. The annual variation is due to CO₂ uptake by growing plants. The uptake is highest in the northern hemisphere springtime.

2.2. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SIDS

Small Island Developing States (SIDS), including the islands of the Caribbean, are deemed to be extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) describes these SIDS as “likely to be among the countries most seriously impacted by climate change”[2]. It goes on to state that:

The projected sea-level rise of 5 mm per year for the next 100 years would cause enhanced coastal erosion, loss of land and property, dislocation of people, increased risk from storm surges, reduced resilience of coastal ecosystems, saltwater intrusion into freshwater resources and high resource costs to respond to and adapt to these changes[3].
Islands with very limited water supplies are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on the water balance[4].
Coral reefs would be negatively affected by bleaching and by reduced calcification rates due to higher carbon dioxide levels; mangrove, sea grass beds and other coastal ecosystems and the associated biodiversity would be adversely affected by rising temperatures and accelerated sea level rise.[5]
Declines in coastal ecosystems would negatively affect reef fish and threaten reef fisheries, those who earn their livelihood from reef fisheries and those who rely on fisheries as a significant food source.[6]
Limited arable land and soil salinization make agriculture for small island states, both for domestic food production and cash crop exports, highly vulnerable to climate change.[7]
Tourism, an important source of income and foreign exchange for many islands, would face serious disruptions from climate change and sea level rise.

The foregoing illustrates that the Caribbean has the potential to be adversely affected by climate change.

3. METHODOLOGY

The detailed methodology used by the Pilot Study was based on the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Vulnerability and Adaptation (V&A) methodology and utilized a staged approached, viz:

Stage One - Identification of Problems and Scope of Analysis.

Stage Two - Scenarios for Coastal Vulnerability Assessment.

Stage Three - Impact Assessment.

Stage Four - Autonomous and Planned Adaptation.

For the purposes of study, the coastal zone was defined as “the band of land and sea straddling the coastline or the area most threatened by sea storms, tsunamis and certain other natural hazards” (Salm et al, 1984). In practice, this was demarcated at the 45m (150 ft.) contour.

3.1. SITE SELECTION

Based on the results of Stage 1, three (3) sites were selected for detailed analysis, viz:

§ Southwest Peninsula - This region bordering the coast from Point Salines in St. George’s to Elliot Point in St. George’s, including the major tourism belt and the capital city of St. George’s.

§ Northeast Coast - The coastal corridor stretching from Marquis in St. Andrew’s to Conference in St. Andrew’s, including the town of Grenville.

§ Carriacou - The entire coastline of the island of Carriacou.

These sites were selected based on the significant presence of the at-risk sectors and/or activities as illustrated in Table 3.1.

Table 3.1 – Importance of Selected Sites

SITES	Tourism	Fishing	Human	Ports	Infra Structure	Recreation	Historic Sites
Southwest	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Northeast	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Carriacou	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

It was also decided that the Vulnerability analysis would focus on the impact of sea level rise on the following sectors within these sites, viz:

Impact on socio-economic activities.
Impact on critical infrastructure.
Beach erosion and inundation.
Impact on water resources, including potential for saline intrusion of the water table.
Impact on coastal ecosystems.
Review of institutional arrangement for responding to sea-level rise.

3.2. SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

The scenarios used in the analysis were:

ü Sea Level Rise

§ SLR1 = 0.2 meters for 2020

§ SLR2 = 0.5 meters for 2050

§ SLR3 = 1 meter for 2100

ü 100-year storm surge levels

§ SS1 = SSpx1.2 (assumes 20% increase)

§ SS2 = SSp (assumes no changes)

§ SS3 = SSpx0.8 (assumes 20% decrease)

§ SS2 should be applied to three years into the future

§ SS1 and SS3 should be applied for the year 2050 and 2100

ü Vertical movement

§ VM = 0 (assumes no vertical movement along the coast of Grenada)

These scenarios are consistent with the predictions for sea level rise in the IPCC Second Assessment Report.

3.3. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

3.3.1. Data Collection

Table 3.2 summarises the data collection methodologies utilised for the various sectors. Wherever feasible, all data collected was geo-referenced and entered into a Geographic Information System (GIS) database to facilitate modeling.

Table 3.2 - Summary of Data Collection Methodologies

SECTORS	Review Existing Reports	Analysis of Existing Data	Field Surveys to generate new data	Field Visits/Ground Truthing	Expert Interviews
Beach Erosion	Ö	Ö	-	Ö	Ö
Socio-economic	Ö	Ö	Ö	Ö	Ö
Infrastructure	Ö	Ö	Ö	Ö	Ö
Hydrology	Ö	Ö	Ö	Ö	Ö
Coral Reefs	Ö	Ö	Ö	Ö	Ö
Legal Review	Ö	Ö	-	Ö	-

3.3.2. Impact Assessment

A variety of techniques were used in conducting the impact assessment, viz:

§ The Beach Erosion was modeled using the Bruun Rule (1962),

§ The Hydrological Analysis of seawater intrusion into unconfined aquifers was done using the Ghyben-Herzberg relation (Driscoll 1986).

§ The Socio-economic and Infrastructure Impact analyses were done by combining the data generated from the field surveys with the results of the GIS impact analysis.

In analyzing the physical damage imparted by floods and inundation to the coastal infrastructure elements under consideration in this study – buildings, roads and utility facilities, both aerial and buried – the following was considered:

- Buildings and Recreational Facilities - undercutting of structural foundations and playing surfaces by erosion; battering of structural members such as walls by floating debris (during hurricanes).

- Roads - undercutting of road pavement, base and sub-base by erosion resulting from wave action; partial or total destruction of sections of roadway by flood-related landslides.

- Pipelines and Appurtenances - uncovering, displacement or complete removal of sections of pipe due to soil erosion; displacement and flotation of pipes and chambers, causing ruptures in the installations, as groundwater levels rise; in the case of underground pump stations, damage to pumping equipment and electrical installations through submergence when flood levels exceed the height of dry-well access manholes; and

- Electricity and Telecoms Line Plant - erosion at the base of utility poles from flood and landslide action, causing collapse and line breakage.

The cost of the potential infrastructure damage to each exposure unit was estimated in accordance with the following assumptions and guidelines:

- The cost of flood damage to buildings and hotels would generally be computed as a proportion of the cost of the buildings.

- The magnitude of damage suffered by a structure could depend on the following factors, inter alia:

ü The proximity of the structure to the coastline.

ü The relative shelter afforded by other structures.

ü The type and extent, if any, of coastal protection works in the vicinity of the structure.

ü The extent of damage suffered as a result of wave action resulting from Hurricane Lenny on November 1999 - this determined from observation of the damages, results of the coastal vulnerability survey (Thomas 2000; Smith 2001) and actual costs of damage reported by building owners.

- Once a significant proportion of an urban road is inundated, then the entire road would have to be abandoned.

- Main roads subject to inundation would have to be re-routed where possible at a unit cost 25% greater than the investment cost.

- The extent of damage, or risk factor (%), applied to utility infrastructure would be of the same order of magnitude as that applied to roads.

§ The raw data collected on the Coral Reefs was inserted into the CPACC Component 5 Excel spreadsheet. This software calculates percent abundance for individual hard corals and collective gorgonians (soft coral), sponges, zooanthids, macroalgae, dead coral with algae, calcaerous algae and sand, pavement and rubble, in terms of percent abundance of the five transects.

A results summary chart was generated for each transect. From these summary charts were generated tables, which showed the mean percentage abundance of the categories, the standard deviation from the means, and the number of points per transect for each category. For the fish, species data was input into Excel spreadsheets, and tables generated on the number of reef fish over a 100 m ² area.

3.4. LIMITATIONS

The primary limitation was the unavailability of baseline data in almost all instances, which limited the comprehensiveness of the analyses that could have been done. In some cases, this limitation was addressed through the generation of original data using field surveys and interviews.

There were a number of areas however where these options were not feasible. This included, bathymetry data, contour maps below the 25 ft. contour and geo-referenced cadastral information for households, location of coastal infrastructure and levels for groundwater wells, in a format that could have been inputted into the GIS models.

4. IMPACT ON SOUTHWEST PENINSULA

4.1. SITE CHARACTERISTICS

The study area consisted of 12 km of coastline containing beaches, commercial areas and national port and airport facilities

4.1.1. Beaches

There are five (5) beaches within this site – Morne Rouge, Pandy, Grand Anse, Queen’s Park and Grand Mal – Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 – Characteristics of Beaches in Southwest Peninsula

Site	Length of Beach (Km)	Sand Type	Sand Color	Level of Development along beach
Morne Rouge	1.20	fine	white	80%
Pandy	0.45	Coarse	White	0%
Grand Anse	2.70	fine		30%
Queens Park	0.30	fine		100%s
Grand Mal	1.50	fine		70%

Of these, the world famous Grand Anse beach is the most important. It is approximately 2.7 km long with the width varying alongshore from 8 m to 45 m (Cambers 1986). Although there are small coral reefs outside this beach, most of the beach is exposed to the Caribbean Sea.

All of the beaches in this site are partially or wholly compartmentalized in terms of littoral drift, by rocky headlands forming littoral cells and sub-cells. Cambers (1996) identified four (4) such cells on the Grand Anse Beach.

The beach material found on the southwest beaches come from the volcanic parent material and the remains of some of the dead coral from the reefs offshore.

The Lands and Surveys and Land Use departments in the Ministry of Agriculture have aerial photos for most of Grenada for the years 1966, 1970, 1982 and 1992. In addition, for Grand Anse, some detailed survey plans are available for some sections for an earlier period. A study of these maps gives an indication of the beach erosion at three sites for the past 35 years at Grand Anse. By using unchanged landmarks along the Morne Rouge main road, distances to high watermark were obtained.

Survey plans at two locations (the Camerhogne Park and the Old Aquatic Beach Club) were compared for 1962 and 1964 and 2000 respectively. Along Camerhogne Park the beach receded about 3.3m over 38 years, while at the Old Aquatic Beach Club beach recession ranged from 5.65m to 7.75m over 36 years. Further evidence of the erosion at Grand Anse is the disappearance of some structures from the 1960s, including the Governor’s Beach house and an access road, evident on the 1960’s aerial photos.

4.1.2. Socio-Economic Characteristics

The main socio economic establishments and activities in this site include:

Residential housing and small businesses
Gasoline storage and receiving station
Small scale and subsistence farming
Recreation and sea bathing areas
Large fish storage and processing plant
Fishing vessels and fishing paraphernalia
The national stadium
The main power generating facilities
Major utility and transportation facility
Site of the fish market under construction
The capital city
The major seaport and airport
The seat of government
The major hotel plants and facilities
The major yachting facilities and marinas
The major financial and banking facilities
The major manufacturing plants and equipment
St. George’s University
Several heritage sites
Coral reefs
Natural break water
Major communication infrastructure
Site of proposed bus terminal and cruise ship facility

The area constitutes the greatest concentration of property and people on the island. In fact, it is the nerve center of the economy.

The estimated number of households within the site based on data from the 1991 population census was 2,343. The estimated population density in the city of St. George's is 4,261 persons per square kilometer. The density for the rest of the parish is estimated at 428 persons per square kilometer (Grenada 1991 Census).

It is envisaged that the site will undergo massive transformation within the project time frames. This transformation will include movement from small businesses to large businesses, from small-scale low technology agriculture and fishing to highly modernized and technology-intensive farming and fishing. It is envisaged that the city center will be expanded with movement along the coast both north and south, and that residential housing will move further than the center (Preliminary Report – National Physical Development Plan). There are also plans for the development of a cruise ship terminal and a bus terminal in the close vicinity of the city center.

A more intensive concentration of commercial and residential activities is the most likely outcome and the population is therefore expected to rise significantly within the project time frames.

The results of the socio-economic survey highlighted the following additional characteristics, viz:

The weighted average household size was 2.85 persons. The average size of households of the national population is 3.9.
The average monthly household income was $1,361.
The estimated of the number of people employed was 13,850.
The weighted average sales generated were $455,000.
62 percent of the properties were concrete structures. 23 percent of the properties were constructed after 1990 and 55 percent after 1980.
The weighted average property value was $152,000.
10 percent of the respondents had experienced flooding. Poor drain maintenance, heavy rainfall, sea level rise and high tides were listed as the most important factors.
The weighted average of the cost of flood damage was $22,000.

4.1.3. Critical Infrastructure

The critical infrastructural facilities located within this site are:

Six (6) - public sector buildings, including the National Insurance Scheme (NIS) building on Melville Street, the Financial Complex on the Carenage, a wing of the General Hospital currently undergoing reconstruction and the Grenada Trade Center in Morne Rouge;
Six (6) - hotels, including the four (4) largest in Grenada: Grenada Grand Beach Resort and Spice Island Beach Resort on Grand Anse Beach, and the Rex Grenadian and La Source at Point Salines.
Three (3) - industrial complexes: the Grenada Commercial Fisheries complex and Texaco bulk terminal at Grand Mal, and the newly constructed Melville Street fish market;
Two (2) - ports: the port of St. George’s and the Point Salines International airport (PSIA);
Four (4) - major recreational facilities, including the Queen’s Park Stadium, Tanteen Recreation Ground and Grand Anse Sports Complex;
Five (5) - major elements of the transportation infrastructure, including the Western Main Road (WMR), Melville Street, the Wharf Road or Carenage and the Grand Anse Main Road;
Electricity plant of the privately-owned provider Grenada Electricity Services Ltd. (GRENLEC);
Telecommunications (telecoms) plant of the privately-owned provider Cable & Wireless Grenada Ltd. (C&W); and

§ Water and sewerage plant of the statutory corporation National Water & Sewerage Authority (NAWASA).

The investment cost of this infrastructure is EC$652.5 million.

4.1.4. Hydrology

All public water treatment plants and distribution reservoirs lie outside of the study areas. The study therefore decided to assess as proxies, public sources outside of the study area, which were located in areas with similar characteristics to the study area.

* To avoid screen dewatering Source: adapted from DIWI 1996, 1997a

Six (6) production boreholes at Chemin Valley and Baillie’s Bacolet near the southern coastline were selected in this regard. The main parameters of these boreholes, along with nearby monitoring boreholes, are shown in Table 4.2.

The analysis conducted for this project concluded that the seawater interface is encroaching on the groundwater in Chemin Valley and Baillie’s Bacolet due to overpumping of the boreholes, and that the production boreholes Ch-4 and BB-2 – and to a lesser extent BB-1– are directly threatened by seawater intrusion during production and have no future as production wells.

There are also several private boreholes supplying brackish water for desalination at on-site reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plants that are used for commercial purposes. These operations are summarised in Table 4.3.

There are no reliable data available on the groundwater levels or aquifer characteristics of the 7 privately owned brackish water boreholes in the study area. However, with the exception of the Grenada Breweries borehole, the wells are all located on the relatively dry southwest peninsula within 250m of the sea and are most likely under threat from seawater intrusion. This would be manifested by increased salinity (conductivity) of the extracted water thereby placing greater demand on the RO desalination plants.

4.1.5. Coral Reefs

Three (3) Reefs within this site were included in the project, viz:

§ Red Buoy Reef (GPS coordinates: N 12⁰02' 48.4 W 61 ⁰ 45' 35.2; Average depth: 41 ft (12.5 m))

This reef, located at the entry of the St. George’s harbour is an almost oval bank reef, with a reef crest approximately 41 ft (12.5m) deep. Along the northern and the deepest section, the reef terminates at the top of a steep wall that drops to approximately 105 ft (32 m). It was comprised primarily of hard corals, and was rather cohesive i.e. there were not many sand channels at the site.

The Red Buoy site, which is approximately 500m from the mouth of St. George’s harbour, is transversed by numerous vessels on a daily basis. All stakeholders interviewed believed that Red Buoy was the reef with the highest potential for anthropogenic impacts off Grenada. Based on this local knowledge, diver observation and Red Buoy’s proximity, the reef was classified as being heavily stressed. Its location at the mouth of the harbour also makes the reef susceptible to hydrocarbon spills, bilge discharges and discarded solid waste from moored vessels. Additionally, the harbour basin is a sink for surface water runoff from the greater St. George’s area, therefore Red Buoy reef may be further stressed by land based sources of pollution. The degree of impacts linked to land-based sources of pollution is directly dependant on the amount of rainfall (surface water) flowing into St George’s from inland sources.

Visibility at this site was poor and significantly lower than at any other site assessed. There were also signs of anchor damage. As it was expected that polluted waters, if present, would flow from shore outwards, the 20 m X 10 m monitoring site was established along the north eastern section of the reef i.e. the section closest to St George’s.

§ Boss Reef - GPS coordinates (N 12 ⁰ 02' 24.0 W 61 ⁰ 46' 19.5; Average depth: 32 ft (10 m).

Boss Reef is a section of a low lying and gently sloping bank reef that runs along the southern section of the West Coast of Grenada. It appears that this barrier reef is rather extensive, as consistent information regarding the extremities of Boss Reef could not be gathered from the main stakeholders.

Boss Reef is situated in close proximity to Grand Anse, which is the area with the highest concentration of dive shops on the island. The site is therefore visited regularly by dive boats carrying large numbers of recreational divers. It is widely accepted that boaters who visit the site often try to drop their anchors on one of the many sand patches when anchoring, however, unfortunately, anchor damage was still very common at the site. Diver damage, which is the main cause of coral mortality at heavily dived sites, (Medio et al, 1996) was also witnessed at Boss Reef. Despite these physical impacts, the site was rated healthy due to the high number of live hard corals.

§ Northern Exposure (GPS coordinates: N 12 ⁰ 02' 21.3 W 61 ⁰ 46' 14.2; Average depth: 23 ft (7 m))

Northern Exposure is situated landward, in relatively close proximity to Boss Reef, and has a very similar topography. Despite these similarities however, there was a greater abundance of soft corals at Northern Exposure, some of which reached 8ft in height, and lesser abundance of hard corals per unit area.

Local dive operators rated Northern Exposure as heavily stressed, however this rating was based primarily on its lack of hard corals (reef building corals). Such community shifts are however natural, especially in such shallow areas where the effects of wave energy are exacerbated (Hubbard, 1997). Very few fish were observed on this reef, and this may be the result of over fishing as several small fishing boats were anchored in the area.

4.2.

Fig 4.1 – Southwest Impact Areas

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

4.2.1. Major Impact Areas

The major impact areas in this site are the Point Salines area in the extreme southwest, the Grand Anse area, the Carenage and Lagoon Road areas of the capital city – St. George’s and the Queen’s Park area of the Capital City – St. George’s – Fig. 4.1.

4.2.2. Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

The vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) under the different scenarios could not be rigorously assessed for all parameters because of the limitations of the methodology.

SLR – 0.2m to 2020

The Beach Erosion results for Grand Anse suggests that between 20% and 31% of the beach would disappear for a 20 cm rise in sea level.

SLR – O.5m to 2050

The Beach Erosion results for Grand Anse suggests that between 55% and 75% of the beach would disappear for a 50 cm rise in sea level.

It must be noted that the estimated erosions are due solely to sea-level rise and do not include other naturally occurring coastal processes which would be important in determining eventual shoreline position.

If the combination of the present erosion rates and the impact of sea level rise are considered jointly, then the rate of disappearance of many of the beaches would be more dramatic.

SLR – 1.0m to 2100

The vulnerability of this site to the impact of a 1-meter sea level rise by 2100 is summarised in Table 4.4.

The table shows that there will be a number of adverse consequences at this site, viz:

ü Beach Erosion - Between 86% and 96% of the Grand Anse beach will disappear under this scenario.

ü Infrastructure Impact - The likely impacts of a 1m SLR by the year 2100 is the inundation of an estimated 18ha of land containing all the identified exposure units on the Carenage, St. George’s, which is currently less than 0.20m above mean sea-level (AMSL).

These are:

- the ground floor of the Financial Complex

- the Carenage Sports Complex

- the Wharf Road along with related utility plant – including the Cable & Wireless telephone exchange and the St. George’s sewerage system pump station located adjacent to the Carenage Sports Complex.

The investment cost of this infrastructure is EC$23.1M (3.5% of the value of the exposure units.

Table 4.4 – Impact of 1 Meter Sea Level Rise in Southwest Peninsula

Types of Impact	Point Salines	Grand Anse	Carenage & Lagoon Road	Queen’s Park	Site Total
*Area of Impact*	Most beach areas	Beach areas and all land, hotels and businesses up to main road	Carenage Road and Lagoon Road, and businesses located on these roads	None	Beach areas & businesses in St. George’s on Carenage and Lagoon Roads
*Beach Erosion*	No data	86% - 96% of beach would disappear	No data	No data	86% - 96% of Grand Anse beach would disappear
*Infrastructure* - Buildings/Floor Space (m²) - Buildings/Land (ha) - Hotels/ Rooms (no.) - Hotels/Land (ha) - Industrial Complexes (no.) - Ports (no.) - Recreational (no.) - Recreational/Land (ha) - Transportation/Road (km) - Electricity/Line Plant (km) - Electricity/Generation - Telecoms/Line Plant (km) - Telecoms/Exchange (no) - Water/Sewage Mains (km) - Sewage Pump Stations (no) Infrastructure Cost (EC$)	- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	4,200 0.72 - - - - 1 0.21 0.70 0.70 - 0.7 1 1.40 1 -	- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	4,200 0.72 - - - - 1 0.21 0.70 0.70 - 0.70 1 1.40 1 EC$23.1M
*Hydrology*					Salinization of some boreholes in Bailes Bacolet and Chemin

ü Hydrology - Assuming that a 1m SLR in year 2100 resulted in a similar rise in the water table in the study area in Grenada, then application of the Ghyben-Herzberg analysis would indicate a 1m reduction in the seawater rise reserve for the Baillie’s Bacolet boreholes to -0.10m (BB-1), -3.36m (BB-2) and 40.69m (BB-3). A similar rise in the seawater interface would be expected at Chemin Valley. This adverse impact is clearly minor when compared with the threat posed by overpumping of the aquifers.

4.2.3. Vulnerability to Storm Surges

§ 2020 Storm Surge

The vulnerability to a Category 2 storm surge combined with a 0.2-meter sea level rise resulting in waves of 8 – 12 ft and flooding of 5 ft, is summarized in Table 4.5. The table shows that there will be a number of adverse consequences at this site:

ü Beach Erosion – based on the experience of Hurricane Lenny in 1999, it is expected that significant erosion will result. This could not be quantified in the absence of bathymetry data.

ü Socio-economic Impact – The impacts here will be on commercial activities as well as human settlements, viz:

- 180 businesses operating in all sectors of the economy and employing 3085 will be affected. The monthly value of the employment income is EC$4.4M. The contribution to GDP could not be quantified due to data limitations. It is recommended that a separate study to determine the GDP contribution of this site be commissioned as it is the one of the primary hub of national economic activity.

- 295 persons, living in 106 homes will be temporarily (or permanently) displaced. The value of these homes is EC$9.6M.

ü Infrastructure Impact - Approximately 60ha of land could be vulnerable to flooding under this scenario. This includes:

- The fisheries and fuel complexes in Grand Mal and all land areas up to 80m on the coastal plain.

- The Carenage and Lagoon roads in St. George’s, including the Financial Complex, the telephone exchange and sewerage infrastructure.

- The entire Grand Anse Beach and a strip of beach-front property up to 190m wide including the major hotels and 2 sewage pump stations.

The investment cost of the affected infrastructure is EC$2.6M.

Table 4.5. – Impact of 5 Ft. Flooding in Southwest Peninsula

Types of Impact	Point Salines	Grand Anse	Carenage & Lagoon Road	Queen’s Park	Site Total
*Area of Impact*	Most beach areas	Beach areas and all land area up to main road	Carenage Road and Lagoon Road	None	Major beach and commercial areas
*Beach Erosion*	Significant erosion	Significant erosion	Significant erosion	Significant erosion	Significant erosion
*Commercial Impact* - No. Businesses - Types of businesses - No. Employees - Employment Income (Monthly)	10 Airport, Hotels, Restaurants 1,050 EC$1.5M	16 Hotels and Market Vendors 575 EC$0.8M	104 Customs & Excise, GPA, Fire Station, C&W, NIS, NAWASA 1,400 EC$2.0M	50 GRENLEC, National Stadium 60 EC$0.1M	180 Major economic activities in all 3,085 EC$4.4M
*Human Settlement* - No. Homes - Value of Homes - No. People	5 EC$3.0M 14	6 EC$1.0M 16	36 EC$5.0M 100	59 EC$0.6 165	106 EC$9.6M 295
*Infrastructure* - Buildings/Floor Space (m²) - Buildings/Land (ha) - Hotels/ Rooms (no.) - Hotels/Land (ha) - Industrial Complexes (no.) - Ports (no.) - Recreational (no.) - Recreational/Land (ha) - Transportation/Road (km) - Electricity/Line Plant (km) - Electricity/Generation - Telecoms/Line Plant (km) - Telecoms/Exchange (no) - Water/Sewage Mains (km) - Sewage Pump Stations (no) Infrastructure Cost (EC$)	- - 50 3.18 - - - - - - - - - - - -	- - 186 7.00 - - - - - - - - - - 2 -	4,200 0.72 - - - - 1 0.21 1.64 1.64 - 1.64 1 1.40 1 -	- - - - 2 - - - 0.600 0.600 - 0.600 - 0.600 - -	4,200 0.72 236 10.18 2 - 1 0.21 2.24 2.24 - 2.24 1 2.00 3 EC$2.6M
*Hydrology*	None	None	None	None	None

§ 2100 Storm Surge

The vulnerability to a Category 2 storm surge, combined with a 1-meter sea level rise, with waves of 8 – 12 ft and a flooding impact of 10 ft is summarized in Table 4.6.

Table 4.6 – Impact of 10 ft. Flooding in Southwest Peninsula

Types of Impact	Point Salines	Grand Anse	Carenage & Lagoon Road	Queen’s Park	Site Total
*Area of Impact*	Most beach areas	Beach areas and all land area up to main road	Carenage Road and Lagoon Road	None	Major beach and commercial areas
*Beach Erosion*	Significant erosion	Significant erosion	Significant erosion	Significant erosion	Significant erosion
*Commercial Impact* - No. Businesses - Types of Businesses - No. Employees - Employment Income (Monthly)	21 Airport, Hotels, Restaurants, St. George’s University and Rented Apartments 1,300 EC$1.9M	76 Hotels, Malls, Banking 1,375 EC$1.9M	323 Customs & Excise, Ports Authority, Fire Station, Cable & Wireless, NIS, NAWASA 2,100 EC$2.3M	50 GRENLEC, National Stadium 60 EC$0.1M	470 Major economic activities in all sectors 4,835 EC$6.2M
*Human Settlement* - No. Homes - Value of Homes - No. People	15 EC$8.0M 42	35 EC$5M 106	117 EC$23M 440	85 EC$4.6M 238	252 EC$40.6M 826
*Infrastructure* - Buildings/Floor Space (m²) - Buildings/Land (ha) - Hotels/ Rooms (no.) - Hotels/Land (ha) - Industrial Complexes (no.) - Ports (no.) - Recreational (no.) - Recreational/Land (ha) - Transportation/Road (km) - Electricity/Line Plant (km) - Electricity/Generation - Telecoms/Line Plant (km) - Telecoms/Exchange (no) - Water/Sewage Mains (km) - Sewage Pump Stations (no) Infrastructure Cost (EC$)	50 10.56 - - - - - - - - - - -	3,300 1.23 326 14 - - 1 0.2 2.01 2.01 - 2.01 - 2.01 3	6,500 0.87 - - 1 1 2 1.79 3.51 3.51 3.51 1 1.40 2	- - - - 2 1 1 - 12.04 0.700 0.700 0.700 1	9,800 2.10 376 24.56 3 2 4 14.03 6.52 6.52 Q. Park Stn. 6.52 1 4.41 5 EC$11.75M
*Hydrology*					1 monitoring borehole in BB and 2 boreholes in Grand Anse

The table shows that there will be a number of adverse consequences at this site:

ü Beach Erosion – based on the experience of Hurricane Lenny in 1999, it is expected that significant erosion will result. This could not be quantified in the absence of bathymetry data.

ü Socio-economic Impact - The impacts here will be on commercial activities as well as human settlements, viz:

- 470 businesses operating in all sectors of the economy and employing 4,835 persons will be affected. The monthly value of the employment income is EC$6.2M. The contribution to GDP could not be quantified due to data limitations. It is recommended that a separate study to determine the GDP contribution of this site be commissioned as it is the one of the primary hubs of national economic activity.

- 826 persons, living in 252 homes will be temporarily (or permanently) displaced. The current value of these homes is EC$40.6M.

ü Infrastructure Impact - Approximately 188 ha of land could be vulnerable to flooding under this scenario. This includes:

- Between 600 m – 700 m of the Western Main Road in the Grand Mal/Fontenoy area could be impacted. This could also adversely impact aerial electricity and telecommunications plant and buried water mains.

- Approximately 300m of the Western Main Road, related utilities in the Queen’s Park area along with the power station and stadium could be impacted by 10ft. floods, which could encroach 800m inland – up to the vicinity of Steele’s Auto complex in River Road.

- Approximately 75% of the ‘downtown’ area west of Grenville Street, with floodwaters encroaching 150m inland – to within 30m of the foot of Market Hill as well as the Port Authority complex, Tanteen Recreation Ground and Tanteen Road.

- All land and buildings in the Grand Anse area as far inland as the Grenada Trade Centre, Youth Development Centre, South St. George Police Station, the Morne Rouge Main Road and about 300m of the Grand Anse Main Road – including utility infrastructure.

- The Rex Grenadian and La Source hotels and the PSIA sewage treatment ponds in the Point Salines area.

The investment cost of the infrastructure at risk is EC$11.75M.

ü Hydrology – the monitoring borehole BB2-MB and 2 brackish water boreholes at hotels on Grand Anse Beach are vulnerable to wave overtopping under this scenario.

5. INSTITUTIONAL READINESS

5.1. INSTITUTIONAL COORDINATION

The study revealed that apart from the CPACC project and the Initial Communication project, there was no institution or organisation dealing specifically with issues of global climate change and sea level rise. Both of these projects are limited life projects, with very specific mandates.

It has been learnt that there were several attempts in the recent past to establish a broad base multi sectoral committee to deal with issues of the environment.

The Sustainable Development Council has been functioning as a clearinghouse to air issues of global climate change and sea level rise and other environmental related subjects. In fact, the Council is the official Steering Committee for the Convention on Biodiversity and the Convention to Combat Desertification. The Council can continue to function as a medium for discussion of environmental issues but there is a dire need for the establishment of a structured framework to continually address issues of sea level rise due to global climate change.

5.2. LEGAL FRAMEWORK

The review of the legal framework concluded that “most of the laws that are applicable to the management of the coastal zone are sectoral and decentralized …while they have environmental application, they were not primarily legislated to address those concerns and are mainly incidental to environmental management. However, all the legislation listed … can be utilized for the management of the coastal zone and to prevent, control and mitigate loss envisaged as a result of the adverse effects of global warming and sea level rise”.

The Review concluded that the legal framework as it obtains now could be adapted and adopted as a short-term measure. This, combined with proper administrative direction and control could provide the legal framework for environmental management in the short to medium term. The adaptation would only require minor but important amendments in the short term. Once the structure is properly coordinated and comprehensive data is collected, then the issues would be much clearer, facilitating the development of new guidelines, management structures and legal framework.

The Report identified seventeen (17) laws that, if strengthened either through amendments or proper implementation, could provide a short-term legal framework for addressing climate change and sea level rise issues.

5.3. AWARENESS LEVELS

The socio-economic survey found that 83 percent of the respondents (across the three sites) indicated previous knowledge of the issue of climate change and 84 percent indicated knowledge of sea level rise associated with climate change.

This relatively high awareness came about primarily as a result of radio and television communications, viz:

§ 39 percent of the respondents indicated hearing mention of the issues on radio.

§ 14 percent read about the issues on newspapers.

§ 33 percent were exposed to the issue via television.

§ 8 percent via book and magazines.

§ 3 percent of the respondents were exposed to the issues via the Internet.

In response to a question on the importance of sea level rise in Grenada, 44 percent of the respondents indicated that sea level rise is very important for Grenada. An additional 43 percent indicated some level of importance. 13 percent indicated that sea level rise is not important for Grenada.

No assessment of the awareness and readiness of business and/or political leaders was available, or had been done by this analysis.

6. CONCLUSIONS

The Pilot Study shows that the Southwest Peninsula of Grenada is very vulnerable to the potential negative impacts of climate change induced sea level rise, with significant adverse implications for national development. It is important therefore that measures be initiated immediately to begin the process of adaptation to climate change.

There are a wide range of measures that can be initiated for each of the affected sectors and it is recommended that these be brought to the attention of the relevant authorities.

It also recommended that a number of actions should be implemented immediately, viz:

Sensitisation of Policy Makers and Key Stakeholders to the results of this Pilot Study.

Public Awareness and Education on the subject of climate change and its potential impacts on Grenada.

Development of a National Adaptation Policy Framework, within the context of a National Climate Change Policy Framework.

Capacity Building to Enhance future V&A Analyses.

Closing of Existing Data Gaps.

§ Incorporation of the Study’s Results into National Planning, including the work of National Emergency Relief Organization (NERO), the Physical Planning Unit and the Economic Affairs Division of the Ministry of Finance.

Implementation of these recommendations will increase the likelihood that the costs of the necessary adaptation will be minimized. It will also increase the likelihood that these measures will be in place before the full impact of climate change begins to affect Grenada, thus minimizing the negative impacts that will result.

7. REFERENCES, ANNEXES AND MAPS

7.1. BEACH EROSION

Archer, A. (1984a) Grand Anse Beach Study: The impact of wastewater on coral reefs. Dept. Reg. Dev., OAS, Washington, DC.

Bruun, P. (1962) Sea Level Rise as a cause of shore erosion. Journal of Waterway, Port, Port and Coastal Engineering, ASCE, 88, 117-130.

Cambers, G (1986) Comparison of beach profiles at Grand Anse between September 1984 and August 1985, OAS

Cambers, G. (1984) Beach erosion study at Grand Anse, Grenada: Coastal dynamics. Report prepared for OAS and the World Bank.

Chambers, Gillian (1996) Hurricane impact on beaches in the Eastern Caribbean Islands. Coast and Beach Stability in the Lesser Antilles: a Project of UNESCO and the University of Puerto Rico Sea Grant College Program.

Dean R. G. (1991) Equilibrium beach profiles: Characteristics and Applications. Journal of Coastal Research, 7, 53-84

Deane, C., M. Thom and H. Edwards (1973) Eastern Caribbean coastal investigations, 1970-1973, British Development Division in the Caribbean.

Dennis, K. C.; I. Niang-Diop and R. J. Nicholls (1995) Sea-Level Rise and Senegal: Potential Impacts and Consequences. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue no. 14, pp243-261.

Douglas, B. C. (1991) Global Sea Level Rise. Journal of Geophysical Research, 96(C4) 6981-6992.

Flather, R. A. and Khandker, H. (1993) The Storm surge problem and possible effects of sea level changes on Coastal Flooding in the Bay of Bengal. In: Warrick , Barrow and Wigley (eds), Climate and sea level change: Observations, Projections and Implications. Canbridge: Cambridge University Press. pp. 229-245.

Grenada Maps (1961) Admiralty, London.

Grenada Maps (1961) Grenada surveyed by J. Parsons with corrections in 1936 and 1961. Lands and Surveys Dept. MOA

Midun, Z and S Lee (1995) Implications of Greenhouse-Induced Sea-Level Rise: A National Assessment for Malaysia Journal of Coastal Research SI, 14,96-115.

Nicholls, R. J.; S. P. Leatherman; K. C. Dennis and C. R. Volonte (1994) Impacts of sea-level rise: Qualitative and quantitative assessments Journal of Coastal Research. Special Issue 14.

Ragoonaden, R. (1999) The Climate Change and Sea Level Rise –Mauritius case, Mauritius Meteorological Services.

Robertson L., M. Mason and J. Opadeyi (2001) Assessment of the vulnerability of coastal resources to sea level rise: A GIS Approach. Ministry of Agriculture, Grenada

Stive, M.J.F; Roelvink, J. A; and DeVriend, H.J. (1990) Large Scale Coastal Evolution Concept. Proceedings 22nd Coastal Engineering Conference, New York:

Volonte, C. R. and J. Arismendi (1995) Sea level rise and Venezuela: Potential impacts and responses. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue no. 14, pp285-302.

Wigley, T. M. L. and S. C. B. Raper (1992) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios. Nature, 357, 293-300.

7.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

Bass Stephen (2000), Participation in the Caribbean: A Review of Grenada’s Forest Policy Process. International Institute for Environment and Development, London.

Government of Grenada (1997), Annual Abstract of Statistics, 1997.

Government of Grenada (1997), Poverty Assessment Report 1999.

Government of Grenada (2000), Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure, 2000.

Government of Grenada / USAID (1991), Grenada Environmental Profile 1991.

Government of Grenada (2000), Medium Term Economic Strategy Paper 2000 – 2002.

Government of Grenada (2000), Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (Including Sector Assessment Reports).

Government of Grenada (2000), National Physical Development Plan (Draft Document).

Government of Grenada (2000), 10 Year Strategic Plan for the Forestry and Natural Parks Department.

Government of Grenada/OAS (2000), Master Plan for the Tourism Sector.

Government of Grenada (1998), Nearshore Marine Resources of Carriacou, Petit Martinique and Outlying Islands: Status, Concerns and Recommendations.

Government of Grenada (1998), Integrated Physical Development and Environment Management Plan for Caribou and Petit Martinique.

Government of Grenada (1998), Overview of Watershed Management in Grenada.

Government of Grenada (2000), Status Reports on Grenada Initial Communications Project.

Government of Grenada (2000), Status Reports on the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global Climate Change Project.

Grenada Labour Force Survey (2000) (Draft).

International Monetary Fund (2000), Grenada: Staff Report for the 2000 Article IV Consultation. Washington D.C.

OECS Secretariat/ Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (2000), Towards an OECS Development Strategy.

United States Department Agriculture (1999), Biodiversity in the Caribbean: Management and Concepts Proceedings of the Ninth Meeting of Caribbean Foresters at the Dominican Republic Jan. 1 – 5, 1998.

7.3. INFRASTRUCTURE

DIWI Consult GmbH (1994) Coastal Erosion, Sea Defences & Road Rehabilitation Studies; Volume 2 Final report. Ministry of Works, Communications & Public Utilities, Government of Grenada.

El Raey, M et al (1999) Adaptation to the Impacts of Sea Level Rise in Egypt. Climate Research 12:117-128.

Grenada Building Code (1999) Organization of Eastern Caribbean States.

Howard Humphreys and Partners (1999) Grenada Wastewater Management Project.

IPCC (1997) Special Report on the Regional Impacts of Climate Change – An Assessment of Vulnerability. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional.

Klein, R.J.T and Nicholls, R.J (1999) Assessment Of Coastal Vulnerability To Climate Change. Ambio 28(2).

Mason, M et al (2001) Assessment of the Vulnerability of Coastal Resources to Sea-Level Rise: A GIS Approach. CPACC Component 6. Ministry of Finance, Grenada.

National Hurricane Centre, USA http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.html

Nicholls, R.J and Klein, R.J.T (2000). Adaptation Frameworks for Sea-level Rise Impacts. http://www.survas.mdx.ac.uk/pdfs/romepap.pdf

Nurse, L (1997) Predicted Sea-level Rise in the Wider Caribbean: Likely Consequences and Response Options. Coastal Conservation Project Unit, Barbados.

Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) (1998) Natural Disaster Mitigation in Drinking Water and Sewerage Systems – Guidelines for Vulnerability Analysis. Washington, D.C.

Parry, M and Carter, T (1998) Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment. Earthscan, London.

Smith, T (2001) Report on Hydrology sub-component of Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment. CPACC Component 6. Ministry of Finance, Grenada.

Thomas, S (2000) Socio-economic Analysis of Coastal Vulnerability in Grenada. CPACC Component 6. Ministry of Finance, Grenada.

Titus, J.G (1990) Greenhouse effect, Sea level Rise, and Land Use. Land Use Policy 7:2, 138-53.

7.4. HYDROLOGY

Barragne-Bigot, P (1987a) Contribution to the Hydrogeology of Carriacou. United Nations, DTCD. Project RLA/82/023.

Barragne-Bigot, P (1987b) Hydrogeological map of the island of Carriacou – explanatory note. United Nations, DTCD. Project RLA/82/023.

Chapman, D (ed) (1996) Water quality assessments: a guide to the use of biota, sediments and water in environmental monitoring, 2e. Chapman & Hall. London.

DIWI Consult International (1996) Hydrogeological survey of Grenada and Carriacou, Vol. 1, report on ph. 1– general reconnaissance & preparation of a test drilling programme. Government of Grenada.

DIWI Consult International (1997a) Hydrogeological survey of Grenada and Carriacou, Vol. 3, report on ph. 2 – reconnaissance drilling & test pumping. Government of Grenada.

DIWI Consult International (1997b) Hydrogeological survey of Grenada and Carriacou, Vol. 4, executive report. Government of Grenada.

Driscoll, F (1986) Groundwater and wells, 2e. Johnson Division. St. Paul, Minnesota.

IPCC (1997) Special report on the regional impacts of climate change – an assessment of vulnerability. http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/regional.

Klein, R.J.T and Nicholls, R.J (1999) Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio 28(2).

Mason, M et al (2001) Assessment of the vulnerability of coastal resources to sea-level rise: A GIS approach. CPACC Component 6. Ministry of Finance, Grenada.

National Hurricane Centre, USA http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.html

Nicholls, R.J and Klein, R.J.T (2000) Adaptation frameworks for sea-level rise impacts. http://www.survas.mdx.ac.uk/pdfs/romepap.pdf

Nurse, L.A (1997) Predicted sea-level rise in the wider Caribbean: likely consequences and response options. Coastal Conservation Project Unit, Barbados, W.I.

Parry, M and Carter, T (1998) Climate impact and adaptation assessment. Earthscan, London.

Peters, E.J (2000) Beach erosion in Grenada. CPACC Component 6. Ministry of Finance, Grenada.

Smith, T (1999) Country analytical report – Grenada. Global water supply and sanitation assessment 2000. Pan American Health Organization.

Société Martiniquaise des Eaux (1992) Pump tests at Baillie’s Bacolet, Parish of St. David. Report R 36135 ANT 4S 92. Government of Grenada.

Strzepek, K.M et al (1998) Chap. 6 – Water resources. In: Feenstra, J.F et al (eds) Handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. UNEP.

Titus, J.G (1990) Greenhouse effect, sea level rise, and land use. Land Use Policy 7:2 pp:138-53.

WHO (1993) Guidelines for Drinking Water Quality. Volume 1. Recommendations. World Health Organization, Geneva.

7.5. CORAL REEFS

Antonius, A. (1988). Distribution and dynamics of coral diseases in the Eastern Red Sea. Proc. 6^th Int. Coral Reef Symposium, Australia, 2:293-299.

Bellairs Research Institute. (1998). Temporal Changes In Coral Reef Communities: 1987-97. Prepared for the Coastal Conservation Project Unit of the Government of Barbados and the Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.

Birkeland, C. (ed.) (1997). Life and Death of Coral Reefs, Chapman and Hall, New York.

Birkeland, C. (1977). The Importance of the Rate of BiomassAccumulation in Early Successional Stages of Benthic Communities to the Survival of Coral Recruits. Proc. 3^rd Internat. Coral Reef Symp., Miami 1. Biology: 15-21.

Brown, B.E., M.D.A. Le Tissier, R.P. Dunne, and T.P. Scoffin. (1993). Natural and Anthropogenic Disturbances on Intertidal Reefs of S.E. Phuket, Thailand 1979-1992. In R.N. Ginsburg (compiler), Proceedings of the Colloquim and Forum on Global Aspects of Coral Reefs: Health, Hazards and History. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, 420 p.

Brown, B. E., and L.S. Howard. (1985). Assessing the Effects of “Stress” on Reef Corals. Advanced in Mar. Biol. 22: 1-63.

Bryant, D.,Burke, L., McManus, J., Spalding, M. (1998). Reefs At Risk. A Map Based Indicator of Threats to the World’s Coral Reefs.

Brylski, A. (2000). Marine Resource Management for Tourism Professionals.

Condie,K.C. 1989. Origins Of The Earth’s Crust. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 75: 57-81.

Costanza, R et al The Value Of The World’s Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital, Nature 387, 256.

CPACC (1999). Recent Fish Kill Events and Recommended Strategies.

Glynn, P.W., and L. D.’Croz. 1990. Experimental Evidence for High Temperature Stress as the Cause of El. Nino- Coincident Coral Mortality. Coral Reefs8: 181-191.

Goreau et al. (1998). Rapid Spread Of Diseases In Caribbean Reefs. Rev. Biol. Trop., 46 Supl. 5 157-171.

Hallock, P. (1987). Fluctuations in the Trophic resource Continuum: a factor in global biodiversity cycles. Palaeoecology 2: 457-471.

Jastrow, R., and M.H. Thompson. (1972). Astronomy: fundamentals and frontiers. Wiley, New York.

Knowlton, N and J.B.C. Jackson (1994). New Taxonomy and Niche Partitioning on Coral Reefs: Jack of all Trades and master of some? Trends Ecol. Evol. 9: 7-9.

Medio D, Ormond R F G and Pearson, M.. (1996). Effect Of Briefings On Rates Of Damage To Corals By SCUBA Divers. Biological Conservation. 91-95.

Neumann, A.C., and I. Macintyre. (1985). Reef Response to Sea Level Rise: Keep-up, Catch-Up or Give-Up. Proc. 5^th Internat. Coral Reef Congr., Tahiti 3: 105-110.

Peters, E.C. (1997). Diseases of Coral Reef Organisms. In C. Birkeland (ed.) Life and Death of Coral Reefs, Chapman and Hall, New York.114-139.

Peters, E.C. (1993). Diseases of other Invertebrate Phyla: Porifera, Cnidaria, Ctenophora, Annelida, Echinodermata.. In Pathobiology of Marine and Estuarine Organisms, J.A. Couch and J.W. Fournie, eds.,pp. 393-449. CRC Press, Boca Raton,FL.

Price P. , Price S. (1998). Nearshore Marine Resources Of Carriacou, Petit Martinique and Outlying Islands. Status, Concerns and Recommendations. Prepared for The Government of Grenada , Physical Planning Unit. UNDP, UNCHS and CDB.

Richmond, R.H. (1997). Reproduction and Recruitment in Corals: Critical Links in the Persistence of Reefs. In C. Birkeland (ed.) Life and Death of Coral Reefs, Chapman and Hall, New York. 175-197.

Tomascik, T. (1991). Settlement Patterns on Caribbean Scleractinian Corals on Artificial Substrata Along a Eutrophication Gradient, Barbados, West Indies. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 77: 261-269.

Wittenberg, M., Hunte, W. (1992). Effects Of Eutrophication And Sedimentation On Juvenile Corals I. Abundance, Mortality and Community Structure. Mar. Biol 112: 131 – 138.

7.6. LEGAL REVIEW

Government of Grenada (1990) Laws of Grenada 1990 (Continuous Revised Laws of Grenada 1990 Volume II – Volume X)

Volume II - CAP 1-66

Volume III - CAP 67-108

Volume IV - CAP 109-162

Volume V - CAP 163-218

Volume VI - CAP 219-284

Volume VII - CAP 285-344

Volume VIII(Subsidiary) - CAP 1-184

Volume IX (Subsidiary) - CAP 188-313

Volume X (Subsidiary) - CAP 314-344

Government of Grenada: Laws of Grenada 1991 – 1999, individual years published by the Government printer containing: -

§ Principal legislation (ordinances) Acts

§ Subsidiary legislation (orders, proclamations, rules, regulations)

§ Imperial legislation (applicable to the State passed during the year)

[1] Article 1, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

GRENADA’S SOUTHWEST PENINSULA

Everson J. Peters

and

Terrence P. Smith

Leon Charles

Consultant, Charles & Associates (CAA) Inc.

Table 3.1 – Importance of Selected Sites

§ Red Buoy Reef (GPS coordinates: N 12 0 02' 48.4 W 61 0 45' 35.2; Average depth: 41 ft (12.5 m))

§ Boss Reef - GPS coordinates (N 12 0 02' 24.0 W 61 0 46' 19.5; Average depth: 32 ft (10 m).

§ Northern Exposure (GPS coordinates: N 12 0 02' 21.3 W 61 0 46' 14.2; Average depth: 23 ft (7 m))

Fig 4.1 – Southwest Impact Areas

EC$23.1M

Table 4.5. – Impact of 5 Ft. Flooding in Southwest Peninsula

EC$2.6M

Table 4.6 – Impact of 10 ft. Flooding in Southwest Peninsula

EC$11.75M

§ Red Buoy Reef (GPS coordinates: N 12⁰02' 48.4 W 61 ⁰ 45' 35.2; Average depth: 41 ft (12.5 m))

§ Boss Reef - GPS coordinates (N 12 ⁰ 02' 24.0 W 61 ⁰ 46' 19.5; Average depth: 32 ft (10 m).

§ Northern Exposure (GPS coordinates: N 12 ⁰ 02' 21.3 W 61 ⁰ 46' 14.2; Average depth: 23 ft (7 m))