The tiny Caribbean island of Montserrat is characterized by its mountainous and volcanic terrain with peaks rising to about 900 metres (3,000 feet) above sea level. Flat coastal land is not a common feature of the Montserratian physical geography and several rivers drain the slopes and flow to the Caribbean Sea. Despite its natural beauty, it has had to endure the force of nature on numerous occasions largely due to its volcanic profile and its geographic location, the latter causing the island to have greater risks of exposure to destructive hurricanes. As recently as the last half of the 1990s, Montserrat was the scene of catastrophic volcanic eruptions that disrupted any semblance of social order that prevailed on the island and strangled the small economy that was beginning to rebound after having been set back by Hurricane Hugo in 1989.
Montserrat covers a land area of 102.7 square kilometers (39.5 square miles). Fergus (2004) described it as ‘ham-shaped’, ‘pear-shaped’, a ‘tear drop’ or even as resembling ‘a leg of mutton’. Located 43 kilometres (25 miles) to the south-west of Antigua and a similar distance north-west of Guadeloupe, a French dependency and possession in the Caribbean Sea, Montserrat was sighted by Christopher Columbus in 1493 but was not settled until 1632-1633 when Europeans, primarily Irish Catholics from the island of St Kitts came to the island. Montserrat is 17.6 kilometers (11 miles) in length and 11.2 kilometers (7 miles) in width. Traditionally, the island has thrived on agricultural activities, despite declining levels of agricultural production since the 1960. However, prior to the volcanic eruptions of the late 1990s, most of Montserrat’s revenue came from tourism. The island is known to have sustained several modes of tourism, principally villa tourism, alongside a smaller scale of activities that hinge upon hotel tourism, cruise ship tourism and visitors on yachts.
In the 1960s and 1970s, expatriates from the United States and Canada visited Montserrat and took advantage of opportunities to invest in villas that enabled them to earn income. Prior to the volcanic crisis, villa tourism was deemed to be more cost-effective than hotel tourism to the extent that there were as many as 400 rooms available in the villa sector as opposed to 100 in the hotel sector. Since overseas banks provided finance for the establishment of the villa tourism culture, the Montserratian economy benefited substantially from such investments. Specifically, the construction of villas was consistent with a need for a range of locally-based service workers to maintain living areas, physical plant, pools and gardens, and was instrumental in improving the well-being of Montserratian and other resident service providers and their families.
During the early 1980s, there was evidence of an emergent light assembly industry in the field of electronics that prevailed alongside tourism and attracted workers from other Caribbean countries, primarily Dominica. The period also witnessed the entry of nationals from other Caribbean countries, mainly Jamaica and Guyana. While the Jamaicans were engaged in construction activities principally as labourers, the Guyanese entrants pursued teaching and nursing. The period was also characterized by thrusts towards the development of other industrial undertakings such as data processing and off-shore banking, both of which were associated with questionable success.
During the twentieth century, there have been documented episodes of volcanic alarms in Montserrat. In the mid-1990s, however, the Soufrière Hills Volcano exhibited some disturbing symptoms that intensified between 1995 and 1998 resulting in events that have since disfigured the island’s landscape, impaired economic activity and disrupted the social fabric of life on the island. Since the 1940s, there has been evidence indicating that the population of Montserrat has declined. While it was as high as 14,000 in the 1940s, it had reduced to about 12,000 in the early 1960s, 11,500 in the 1970s and early 1980s, 11,000 from the mid-1980s to the early 1990s and 10,000 towards the mid-1990s.
The first volcanic explosion in Soufrière Hills occurred on July 18th 1995 and throughout the rest of 1995 and 1996, volcanic activity persisted in the southern half of the island prompting evacuations in Plymouth and other communities in the south. By 1997, the level of volcanic activity had intensified culminating in the events of June 25th 1997 when 19 persons in the exclusive zone were killed as a result of pyroclastic flows and surges. These events destroyed Plymouth, the capital and main town centre in Montserrat. The island’s physical plant and landscape, particularly on the eastern slopes of the Soufrière Hills, experienced substantial degradation and destruction as a result of continuous volcanic activity including dome collapse. This bred substantial levels of discomfort across the island prompting a further exodus of residents who had already been leaving in droves. In 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999, the population size of Montserrat had declined continuously in the vicinity of 7,900, 6,000, 2,800 and 3,400 respectively. Between 1996 and 1998, the loss due to net migration had amounted to more than 70% of the island’s population, the vast majority of whom would have been evacuees.
At the onset of the new millennium, volcanic activity persisted with further dome collapse and pyroclastic flows being evident in 2003. The Montserrat Volcano Observatory (MVO), established in 1995, has been monitoring volcanic activity and advising civilian authorities about activities and hazards associated with the Soufrière Hills. Notwithstanding the appearance of a calm, inactive environment, the MVO has issued warnings about the likely occurrence of sudden volcanic eruptions such as those of March 3rd 2005 and the ash venting episodes on April 15th 2005 and again in June 2005. Not surprisingly, a great deal of uncertainty has been associated with this volcanic crisis to the extent that it has profoundly impacted human settlement patterns in a negative way. The end result has been the exodus of large numbers of native Montserratians who moved on with their lives in destinations such as England, Antigua and Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands and St Kitts and Nevis.
With respect to those Montserratians who have emigrated, the indeterminate character of the volcanic crisis and perceived challenges have served to weaken their prospects of return to Montserrat and hasten their decision to remain abroad despite their attachment to their homeland. Other native Montserratians deem it a blessing that Montserrat has remained a colony of Britain and expected to capitalize upon that fact by migrating to England which was made much simpler as a result of the crisis. For the latter set of Montserratians, there was no intention of return except for temporary sojourns in the homeland.
Ebanks (1987) prepared a monograph entitled Montserrat and Its People – A Demographic Analysis as part of a larger initiative undertaken under the auspices of the CARICOM Secretariat. Based on data from the 1980s, he observed that crude birth rates were low and likely to decline even further. In general, he considered the prospect of rising fertility levels to be a remote possibility as Montserratian women were deemed to be making greater strides with regard to educational advancement and participating more actively in the labour force. The infant mortality rate had also been observed to have declined substantially during the 1980s to a point where it was unlikely to decline much further. Similar declines have been observed with respect to child mortality and maternal mortality, but with the progressive ageing of the island’s population, mortality, principally among the elderly, was expected to rise mainly due to the impact of degenerative diseases.
Daly (1996) analyzed the data emerging out of the 1991 Population and Housing Census for Montserrat and supported claims made by Ebanks (1987) regarding fertility trends and population ageing. With reference to the 1990s and early 2000s, St Bernard (2006) contain data indicating that the late 1990s were characterized by increases in the proportion of elderly persons 65 years and over, exceeding 20% during 1998, and despite the return of some Montserratian natives since 1999, the ageing process in Montserrat is still evident with the proportion of the population 65 years and over stabilizing in the vicinity of 16% since 2001. Daly (1996) noted that in 1991, 60% of the population of Montserrat had been in working-age groups. St Bernard (2006) provides evidence suggesting that this pattern persisted before 1997 and that since 1999 the population size had begun to increase due principally to the return of former residents who sought refuge in a number of countries. The return of former residents had implications for the age-structure of the island’s population particularly since 2000 resulting in an increase in the relative size of the working-age population to just over 60% of the island’s population.
The Government of Montserrat has developed and embarked upon three Sustainable Development Plans between 1998 and 2008. These plans were developed to restore the island’s physical infrastructure and revive social and economic institutions in the aftermath of the volcanic crisis. The first plan, known as the Sustainable Development Plan 1998-2002, was commissioned to foster initiatives to rebuild Montserrat in the aftermath of the volcanic eruptions and focused upon four main concerns that involved the development of the northern third of Montserrat. Such concerns included greater efficiency and effectiveness of the public sector, partnership and promotion of the private sector, protection of the vulnerable and promotion of social welfare. The second plan known as the Sustainable Development Plan 2003-2007 sought to treat with the phenomenal threat posed by the level of uncertainty due to living in the shadow of an active volcano. It has sought to capitalize on the accomplishments of the first plan and has focused on transforming Montserrat into a service-oriented and export-led economy. It hinged upon six strategic objectives, one of which is “to promote the retention of the present population and encourage the return of Montserratians from overseas.” The six strategic objectives traverse three principal priority areas that include the Productive Sector, the Social Sector and the Public Sector.
In the productive, social and public spheres, the prospect of attaining sustainability rests with key demographic characteristics of the Montserratian population. Montserrat has to discover means of fostering growth in its working age population and reducing its age-dependency ratio. In the early years of the second plan, the available evidence points towards increases in the size of the island’s population from about 4,500 in 2003 to just over 5,000 during 2006. Despite increasing, the island’s population size falls substantially below the target size of 8,000 persons reported in the Terms of Reference for a Demographic Study of Montserrat. More specifically, the target was set to be attained by 2007 and though not based on objective criteria, was considered to be the optimal population size that would augur well for the attainment of the development objectives articulated in the second plan.
The third plan known as the Sustainable Development Plan 2008-2010 hinges on five strategic objectives: economic management, human development, environment and disaster management, governance and population. In order to foster economic management, the plan articulates initiatives for creating an environment that promotes sustained growth, a diversified economy and the generation of employment opportunities. It is also proposed that human development should be achieved through improving the quality of life all people in Montserrat through better housing solutions, primary, secondary and tertiary health care provision, the promotion of healthy familial relations and a God-fearing society. Environmentally sustainable development is sought through the conservation of Montserrat’s natural resources and adopting appropriate strategies for disaster mitigation. In terms of governance and the administration of public services, the plan articulates strategies for developing efficient, responsive and accountable systems. Of particular importance in this regard is the need to implement strategies for managing crime and delinquency. Finally, the plan highlights the importance of establishing population, labour and immigration policies, and embracing social and economic policies, all of which are consistent with the attainment of sustainable population growth.
The volcanic crisis has had a profoundly negative impact on social and economic institutions that prevailed in Montserrat during the mid-1990s to the extent that the Government of Montserrat has developed and embarked upon a series of Sustainable Development Plans in order to rebuild physical infrastructure and restore the social and economic institutions. While the island has achieved modest population growth since 1999, the population of Montserrat in 2006 was enumerated to be about 5,000 and is likely to remain at that level throughout 2007 and 2008. In order to satisfy the requirements of the three Sustainable Development Plans, population growth at rates substantially higher than those that prevailed since 2000 is a necessary underlying factor. To this end, three alternative measures contribute individually and/or collectively to increasing such rates of population growth. They include increases in fertility levels, increases in the longevity of life, and increases in net migration.
Given past trends that have emerged in the context of fertility levels among females of childbearing age, fertility levels are much more likely to decrease. However, if increases do occur, they are not likely to exceed replacement fertility. In Montserrat, longevity of life is quite high, estimated to be 78.7 years for males and 80.2 years for females. At best, there are likely to be modest improvements in the mortality experience of the Montserratian population so that increases in population size due to survival to older ages may not be too phenomenal. In fact, declining fertility levels and increasing longevity of life could result in a net loss of population in cases where the number of deaths annually exceeds the number of births as has already been observed in Montserrat. The number of deaths annually is likely to be greater than the number of births in cases where high longevity of life facilitates the survival of greater numbers of older persons who are also exposed to higher risks of dying, the end result being an increase in the number of deaths on an annual basis.
This means that migration is the only meaningful lever for attaining population growth. Since the onset of the volcanic crisis, Montserrat has experienced negative net migration despite an influx of immigrants mainly from Guyana, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, St Vincent and the Grenadines and the Commonwealth of Dominica. The paper suggests possible strategies for either reducing the magnitude of losses due to negative net migration or facilitating increases in population size through positive net migration. To this end, the paper draws on insights from population projections for Montserrat between 2001 and 2016. The paper contends that the most viable strategies to increase population size on the basis of measures designed to impact migratory trends positively rest on exploiting Montserrat’s natural environment.
Notwithstanding the government’s desire to attract Montserratians living overseas to return home, any marked increase in population size beyond 2006 would most likely rest on in-migration characterized by an influx of Non-Montserratians rather than the return of Montserratians living overseas. This reinforces the notion that Non-Montserratians will continue to be critical to sustainable development processes pursued in Montserrat and thus remain integral to it, given projected migration scenarios pertaining to prospective in-migrants.
The study is based primarily on secondary research using official statistics complied by the Statistics Department in Montserrat and population projections contained in St Bernard (2006). Supporting evidence are also drawn from a small number of formal studies, specifically Ebanks (1987) and Daly (1996) which have addressed contemporary population dynamics in Montserrat. The Statistics Department has staff that is sufficiently well trained in the principles of official statistics, including those pertaining to population dynamics. As such, they possess the requisite skills to meaningfully manipulate statistics pertaining to the small number of demographic events impacting population size in Montserrat. This is further reinforced by standards that reinforce the completeness of record keeping pertaining to events such as migration, births and deaths.
The population projections informing this study used the estimated mid-year population of 2001 as the base year population. Since the most recent Population and Housing Census was conducted in May 2001, the estimated mid-year population of 2001 disaggregated on the basis of age and sex (see Table 5) was expected to provide a highly valid coverage of the island’s population on the basis of its age-sex structure. The cohort-component method was used for projecting the age-sex structure of Montserrat’s population across five-year intervals ending in 2016. The actual projections were executed using the population projections module of the United Nations MORTPAK4.
With reference to assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration trends across the projection period, four sets of demographic assumptions – a high variant, a low variant, a medium variant and a constant variant – were generated in order to permit assessments of variable demographic outcomes that have implications from a development perspective. The specific sets of assumptions associated with the different variants are outlined in St Bernard (2006). The four demographic variants spawn demographic outcomes that are associated with variable options, targets and directions that characterize fertility behaviour, mortality experiences and migratory responses in specific five-year intervals between 2001 and 2016.
| Source: St Bernard (2006) | ||||
| Demographic Variables | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life Expectancy at Birth – Male | 78.7 | 79.5 | 80.0 | 80.5 |
| Life Expectancy at Birth – Female | 80.2 | 81.4 | 81.9 | 82.4 |
| Total Fertility Rates | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Net Migration – Male | 18 | 36 | 54 | 72 |
| Net Migration – Female | 16 | 32 | 48 | 64 |
| Source: St Bernard (2006) | ||||
| Demographic Variables | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Life Expectancy at Birth – Male | 78.7 | 79.5 | 80.0 | 80.5 |
| Life Expectancy at Birth – Female | 80.2 | 81.4 | 81.9 | 82.4 |
| Total Fertility Rates | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Net Migration – Male | 18 | 36 | 72 | 144 |
| Net Migration – Female | 16 | 32 | 64 | 128 |
The four demographic variants hinge upon one overarching assumption that there are no exogenous shocks that cause dramatic changes in fertility, mortality and migration during the fifteen-year period between 2001 and 2016 (in the event that exogenous shocks do occur during the fifteen-year period, there is virtually no possible means of arriving at realistic scenarios outlining the magnitude of the impact on fertility, mortality and migration – the “worse case” scenario reflected by the Low Assumption is closest to realizing outcomes associated with a pessimistic future). In essence, the four assumptions assume that there will be no future catastrophic volcanic eruptions despite the active status of the Soufrière Hills. Based on an enumeration of population and households as of March 1st 2006, the total population of Montserrat was 5,031 while population resident in households was 4,884 (Statistics Department, 2008). When these figures are compared with the outcomes of the population projections that were completed in 2005, Table 1 shows that the high variant of the population projections is observed to yield the most plausible projections to date. Table 2 also shows an alternative high variant which assumes that migration changes at a constant rate rather than by a constant amount across five year intervals. Thus, the latter is substantially more optimistic about population growth largely through migration in the long term when compared with the former. As such, these two high variants are used as a means for supporting arguments in the rest of this paper.
Given the primacy attached to population size in articulating the sustainable development plans pursued by the Government of Montserrat, the census enumeration of March 2006 and earlier population projections based on the high variant suggest that population of Montserrat is unlikely to reach 8,000 by 2007 or even 2008. Moreover, the high and alternative high variants considered to be the most optimistic of the projections reveal that even by 2016, the population of Montserrat is unlikely to reach 8,000. Thus Table 3 shows that if the Montserratian government eventually embarks upon measures consistent with the attainment of demographic events linked to the high variant, the island’s population size would have been at least 4,739 in 2006 and could be in excess of 5,000 by 2011, being in the vicinity of 5,149 in 2011 and 5,766 in 2016. If the measures facilitate the attainment of more optimistic targets consistent with the alternative high variant, the island’s population size could be in the vicinity of 5,216 in 2011 and 6,251 in 2016.
In accordance with the two high variants, Table 3 shows consistent increases in the number of persons 15-24 years, 45-64 years and 65 years or older across the entire projection period. With respect to children under 5 years, consistent increases in population size are projected between 2006 and 2016. Between 2001 and 2011, both variants project declining numbers with respect to the size of the population aged 25-44 years. However, between 2011 and 2016, the size of this sub-population is projected to increase. With respect to the high variant, assuming that net migration increases by a constant amount, the population of children 5-14 years is projected to decline consistently across the entire projection period. However, if the more optimistic assumption indicative of net migration increasing at a constant rate were to become manifest, projection would be indicative of increasing population size among children 5-14 years between 2011 and 2016.
| Source: St Bernard (2006) | ||||||||
| Age Group | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Alternative High | High | Alternative High | High | Alternative High | High | Alternative High | |
| All Ages | 4,516 | 4,516 | 4,739 | 4,739 | 5,149 | 5,216 | 5,766 | 6,251 |
| 0-4 | 310 | 310 | 235 | 235 | 264 | 268 | 322 | 349 |
| 5-14 | 562 | 562 | 615 | 615 | 602 | 610 | 587 | 642 |
| 15-24 | 482 | 482 | 584 | 584 | 634 | 640 | 725 | 781 |
| 25-44 | 1,389 | 1,389 | 1,318 | 1,318 | 1,295 | 1,311 | 1,359 | 1,468 |
| 45-64 | 1,066 | 1,066 | 1,225 | 1,225 | 1,449 | 1,464 | 1,641 | 1,749 |
| 65 and over | 707 | 707 | 762 | 762 | 906 | 922 | 1,132 | 1,261 |
| Source: St Bernard (2006) | ||||||||
| Age Group | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Alternative High | High | Alternative High | High | Alternative High | High | Alternative High | |
| All Ages | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| 0-4 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| 5-14 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 10.2 | 10.3 |
| 15-24 | 10.7 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 12.5 |
| 25-44 | 30.7 | 30.7 | 27.8 | 27.8 | 25.2 | 25.2 | 23.6 | 23.5 |
| 45-64 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 25.8 | 25.8 | 28.1 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 28.0 |
| 65 and over | 15.7 | 15.7 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 17.6 | 17.7 | 19.6 | 20.2 |
| Period | Annual Growth Rate | |
|---|---|---|
| High | Alternative High | |
| 2001-2002 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| 2005-2006 | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| 2010-2011 | 1.92 | 2.42 |
| 2015-2016 | 2.49 | 4.5 |
Despite the prospect of increasing levels of fertility, Table 4 shows that prospective changes in longevity of life and migratory movements are likely to have a greater impact in increasing the relative sizes of older sub-populations across the projection period. While the relative sizes of sub-populations consisting of persons 0-4 years and 5-14 years would be characterized by marginal declines, the relative sizes of populations consisting of persons 45-64 years and 65 years or older would be characterized by increases that would be more substantial. While elderly persons 65 years or older accounted for approximately 16% of the island’s population in the early 2000s, by 2011 and 2016, such elderly persons would likely account for approximately 18% and 20% respectively of the island’s population. In contrast, the relative sizes of the sub-population consisting of persons 25-44 years would be expected to decline across the projection period from 30.7% in 2001 to 23.6% by 2016. It is also worth noting that scenarios consistent with the high assumption would result in a situation where the younger working-age population 25-44 years would have outnumbered the mature working-age population 45-64 years during the first decade of the millennium but by the second decade, this pattern would be reversed with the mature working-age population outnumbering the younger working-age population.
On examining Table 5, the high variant is consistent with increases in the annual rate of population growth across the projection period ranging from 0.67% in 2001-2002 to approximately 2.0% during 2010-2011 and approximately 2.5% during 2015-2016. The alternative high variant results in more phenomenal annual rates of population growth of 2.42% during 2010-2011 and 4.5% during 2015-2016. Notwithstanding the more phenomenal annual rates of population growth associated with the alternative high variant, the population size of Montserrat is not projected to be in the neighbourhood of 8,000 by 2016. This suggests that fertility levels will have to continue increasing beyond the replacement level characterized by a TFR that is equal to 2.1. It also suggest that net migration has to be substantially higher than that advocated in the context of the alternative high variant.
For both high variants, net migration was not only positive but was also projected to be increasing with the passage of time thereby contributing further to increases in projected population sizes. This argument serves to reinforce the importance of initiatives that stimulate positive net migration and advance it as a principal instrument for fostering population growth in Montserrat. In keeping with the Sustainable Development Plan 2003-2007, a main thrust is “to promote the retention of the present population and encourage the return of Montserratians from overseas” (The Development Unit, 2002a and 2002b). To this end, there is an orientation towards increasing the size of the island’s population, a strategy that requires Montserratian authorities to facilitate increasing levels of positive net migration and if deemed essential, embrace initiatives that would facilitate increases in fertility levels.
Insofar as increasing the magnitude of positive net migration stands out as a desirable option in facilitating increases in the size of Montserrat’s population, Montserratian authorities have to establish a medium for retaining its native population domiciled in Montserrat and attracting those who are domiciled abroad. Given that the younger working-age population appears to be the sub-population experiencing the greatest reductions in relative size based upon evidence emerging out of the projections, the thrust should be directed principally towards retaining native Montserratians in that sub-population. Initiatives such as the establishment of new programmes offered through the Montserrat Community College and greater promotion of course offerings through the Open Campus, The University of the West Indies, Montserrat, are steps in the right direction.
Additionally, the prospect of establishing an Off-Shore University with substantially reduced fees for Montserratians could seem attractive providing that job opportunities are created on the island upon their graduation. The latter has the advantage of increasing Montserrat’s population further as temporary sojourners, for example, foreign students and faculty, would spend extended periods of time in Montserrat on a continuous basis, thereby demanding goods and services and stimulating further economic activity that could provide employment for native Montserratians, encouraging them to stay rather than migrate. Furthermore, native Montserratians might be encouraged to return from abroad if prospects of such an undertaking seem positive for the domestic economy.
Such an Off-Shore institution may wish to take advantage of Montserrat’s natural environment and offer programmes in Environmental Studies. Montserrat constitutes the ideal location for such programmes, not only because of its idyllic island paradise image but also because of its recent catastrophic experiences with nature. The presence of an established research organ such as the Montserrat Volcano Observatory enhances the prospect of such a venture.
With regard to favourable population growth in Montserrat, the two most promising projections point towards growth in the relative size of the elderly population which is expected to approach 20% by 2016. The island’s topography creates a perfectly soothing environment with human settlement nestled in rolling hills and plateaus that are naturally air-conditioned, offering great vistas of distant landmasses, the ocean, the rising sun and awesome sunsets. This raises the prospect of geriatric care as a worthy industry that should be a principal pre-occupation for Monserratian authorities. This could be complemented by the prospect of the Off-Shore University that could also mount programmes in Geriatric Care which is a worthwhile consideration in a natural environment that constitutes a laboratory for such a pursuit.
To this end, Montserrat could pursue the kind of niche marketing to establish itself as a locale catering to the needs of elderly persons from the North Atlantic and elsewhere, especially during winter. The prospect of establishing international geriatric communities and facilitating activities that enhance the quality of life of elderly persons are likely to establish Montserrat as a model site with its own unique character in supporting elderly sub-populations. Such initiatives can capitalize upon the favourable conditions that enhance longevity of life among Montserratians and be a catalyst for attracting health care professionals such as nurses, physicians, geriatricians and specialists in chronic diseases, outcomes that are sure to augur well in catering to the needs of the island’s growing elderly population. Such a development is also likely to result in further gains in the island’s already favourable mortality experience, create further employment for locals, and stimulate the desired population growth.
If strategies such as the establishment of an Off-Shore University and the creation of a geriatric community are realized, the potential for attaining greater balance in the island’s sex ratios becomes more realistic. Assuming that females have been outnumbering males in tertiary level programmes, foreign students attracted from abroad are more likely to be female than male. The establishment of the geriatric community is also likely to seem more attractive to female returnees and act as a catalyst for retaining native female workers such as nurses and other care-givers. Moreover, prospective elderly residents, particularly the foreigners, are more likely to be female given the lower sex ratios that are usually characteristic of elderly populations.
In the aftermath of the volcanic eruptions, Montserrat has been left with a few options to face the vicissitudes of the twenty-first century. Throughout the major part of the first decade, the Government of Montserrat has been engaged in the rebuilding process and requires the human resource base to facilitate such an initiative and at the same time, render it sustainable. Except for the public sector, a distribution sector, a small financial sector, a hospitality sector that thrives mainly on an eco-tourism thrust, and a declining agricultural sector, there are very few options for the creation of employment and the generation of domestic revenue.
According to the Chief Minister, Dr. Lowell Lewis, “Our strategy is to develop community-based tourism, eco-tourism, health tourism and sports and cultural tourism.” Several leading personalities including the Governor of Montserrat, the Chairman of the Montserrat Tourist Board and the Director of Tourism have highlighted the virtues of Montserrat’s social and natural environment in their efforts to showcase the virtues of Montserrat. From the standpoint of the social environment, reference has been made to the friendliness of the people, the safety on the roads, the cuisine, the island’s crime-free character, hiking and bird watching, and the absence of the hustle and bustle of the larger Caribbean islands. From the standpoint of the natural environment, reference has been made to the secluded grey sand beaches, deep-sea dive sites, lush green forests, spectacular sunsets and spectacular views of the Soufrière Hills.
In addition to eco-tourism, the Government of Montserrat has been left with very few options that can ultimately fulfill the requirements of the three Sustainable Development Plans. Such requirements are most likely to be fulfilled by increasing population size though there is no knowledge about what constitutes an optimal size. This paper suggests that the Government of Montserrat can capitalize on its natural environment, in particular its volcanic heritage, its topography and its atmospheric conditions in the establishment of a Geriatric Community Programme and an Off-Shore University with training and research programmes targeting Geriatric Care, the Environment and Volcanology. The establishment of such ventures would be consistent with an influx of clients, students, faculty and prospective workers (immigrant and returnees) who will supply and demand not only greater but also a wider array of services for stimulating investment and fostering improvements in living standards intra-generationally as well as inter-generationally. In the case of Montserrat, the virtues of the natural environment mix and combine with the virtues of the social environment in promoting the viability of the idea.
Given the population projections presented earlier, these ventures seem worthwhile as means of overcoming the shortfall in population size due to current and projected rates of annual population growth. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that a number of stakeholders share the view that Montserrat could attract increasing numbers of in-migrants primarily from among the Montserratian diaspora that is currently residing overseas. They share the view that the current reliance on air transport to and from Montserrat is insufficient and incapable of supporting development requirements that are consistent with those contained in the Sustainable Development Plans for 2003-2007 and 2008-2010. As such, they recognize the need to fully operationalize the harbour facilities at Little Bay as a likely panacea and opine that with the appropriate establishment of such harbour facilities, the momentum will be gained to stimulate the kind of investment that could fast-track plans to build infrastructure and establish a town centre at Little Bay. The success of initiatives pertaining to the establishment of a Geriatric Community Programme and Off-Shore University activities hinge upon fully operationalizing air and sea transportation networks.
In closing, these ventures are predicated upon the notion that there is some level of optimism that life would persist as usual under normal conditions as long as steps are taken to monitor emergent hazards and risks associated with the Soufrière Hills Volcano (Committee on Montserrat Volcanic Activity, 2005). While another major catastrophic eruption would upset the island’s equilibrium, the mass destruction of physical plant, and social and economic institutions is not likely to prevail due to settlement on the northern fringe of the island. Moreover, it has been noted that Ring (2006) emphasized the tremendous value that Montserratians place on the “home space”, their resilience across time in response to several natural disasters and their ability to cope and rebound from the ravages of disaster. This is further complemented by their abundant faith in God and positive spiritual responses to adverse life experiences, all of which are instrumental in their desire to combat an uncertain future.
Committee on Montserrat Volcanic Activity (2005). Assessment of the Hazards and Risks Associated with the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat – Fourth Report of the Scientific Advisory Committee on Montserrat Volcanic Activity, Montserrat Volcano Observatory.
Daly, Olney (1996). An Analysis of the 1991 Population and Housing Census for Montserrat, Georgetown: CARICOM Secretariat.
Ebanks, G, Edward (1987). Montserrat and its People – A Demographic Analysis, Georgetown: CARICOM Secretariat.
Fergus, Howard (2004). Montserrat – History of a Caribbean Colony, second edition, Macmillan Caribbean.
Ring, Karen (2006). Montserrat – A Study of Caribbean Resiliency, paper presented at SALISES Seminar Series, The University of the West Indies, Cave Hill, Barbados.
St Bernard, G. (2006). Montserrat Demographic Study, Brades, Montserrat: Development Unit.
The Development Unit (2002a). Montserrat – Sustainable Development Plan 2003-2007, Montserrat: The Government of Montserrat.
The Development Unit (2002b). The Social Policy Guidelines – Towards a People Centred Approach in Montserrat, Montserrat: The Government of Montserrat.
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